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Population scare causes a state of fear
Actions driven by panic, not compassion




Hanna Oltean is a senior double majoring in biochemistry and human cultural studies

Recent reports in newspapers that call attention to the rapidly increasing populations in developing countries such as China spread more fear than inform readers. The Seattle Times recently published an article entitled, "China says population grew by almost 7 million in 2006," which appeared very factual and to-the-point. However, what this and other articles like it fail to mention are future expectations for population growth in correspondence with their current statistics.

For years, scientists, demographers and sociologists have been tracking the increasing population and determining plans for the adjustment of society. Predictions of overpopulation led China to adopt familial and economic measures in an attempt to slow growth; such measures included increasing selective-sex abortions.

Similar predictions of overpopulation have led to fear in our own country and have at least partially resulted in the lower-level status associated with large families. These extreme measures are influenced more by fear of the unknown than by educated information on population predictions.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau Web site, the growth of the world's population is slowing down; instead of an exponential curve of population growth, the curve may take on a sigmoidal shape, leveling off in the coming years.

The United Nations' predictions of population growth show a population in 2050 as low as 7.4 billion, in relation to the current population of 6.6 billion. Interestingly, all past census long-term population predictions have overestimated the real population.

In addition, people fail to take into account the increasing development of the world. In past examples of developing countries, economic prosperity has been a powerful reduction agent for population growth. Indeed, according to the Census Bureau, fertility rates dropped worldwide from 4.5 children per mother in 1970-1975 to 2.8 in 1995-2000. Specifically in Asia, where all of this concern originated, fertility rates dropped from 5.1 in 1970 to 2.7 in the late 1990s. In all areas other than longevity, population growth rates appear to be decelerating.

In many ways, the focus on population control has led China in particular to miss another looming problem: the aging of a society that is still at a low level of development. This issue has been impacted by the population growth restraint technique of one child per couple instituted across the country. By having only one child, there is only a small labor pool to pay for the increasing numbers of elderly in the coming years.

There are also predictions of social unrest in future days, as an increasingly gender-imbalanced society ages. Up to 15 percent of men cannot marry in their age group. Problems such as these, created in part by fears of population growth, should become the headline topics. However, as long as the media can play off of the fear that a rapidly rising population brings, they will be able to sell stories. And as long as a partially-educated audience buys into it, these issues will continue to be one-sided.

If people stopped to think about the natural population controls that occur and the decrease in worldwide family size, then maybe they would also be able to pay attention to the rising social issues that have resulted from our fear of population growth.

If more concern is paid to the redistribution of resources, the development of struggling areas and the implementation of productive humanitarian aid programs, help could be brought to areas of rapid growth. As long as our actions are motivated by fear and not by thorough education and compassion, social programs with adverse consequences will be implemented in our rush to control population escalation.


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