
Hanna Oltean is a senior double majoring in biochemistry and human cultural studies
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Recent reports in newspapers that call attention to the rapidly
increasing populations in developing countries such as China spread
more fear than inform readers. The Seattle Times recently published
an article entitled, "China says population grew by almost 7
million in 2006," which appeared very factual and to-the-point.
However, what this and other articles like it fail to mention are
future expectations for population growth in correspondence with
their current statistics.
For years, scientists, demographers and sociologists have been
tracking the increasing population and determining plans for the
adjustment of society. Predictions of overpopulation led China to
adopt familial and economic measures in an attempt to slow growth;
such measures included increasing selective-sex abortions.
Similar predictions of overpopulation have led to fear in our
own country and have at least partially resulted in the lower-level
status associated with large families. These extreme measures are
influenced more by fear of the unknown than by educated information
on population predictions.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau Web site, the growth of the
world's population is slowing down; instead of an exponential curve
of population growth, the curve may take on a sigmoidal shape,
leveling off in the coming years.
The United Nations' predictions of population growth show a
population in 2050 as low as 7.4 billion, in relation to the
current population of 6.6 billion. Interestingly, all past census
long-term population predictions have overestimated the real
population.
In addition, people fail to take into account the increasing
development of the world. In past examples of developing countries,
economic prosperity has been a powerful reduction agent for
population growth. Indeed, according to the Census Bureau,
fertility rates dropped worldwide from 4.5 children per mother in
1970-1975 to 2.8 in 1995-2000. Specifically in Asia, where all of
this concern originated, fertility rates dropped from 5.1 in 1970
to 2.7 in the late 1990s. In all areas other than longevity,
population growth rates appear to be decelerating.
In many ways, the focus on population control has led China in
particular to miss another looming problem: the aging of a society
that is still at a low level of development. This issue has been
impacted by the population growth restraint technique of one child
per couple instituted across the country. By having only one child,
there is only a small labor pool to pay for the increasing numbers
of elderly in the coming years.
There are also predictions of social unrest in future days, as
an increasingly gender-imbalanced society ages. Up to 15 percent of
men cannot marry in their age group. Problems such as these,
created in part by fears of population growth, should become the
headline topics. However, as long as the media can play off of the
fear that a rapidly rising population brings, they will be able to
sell stories. And as long as a partially-educated audience buys
into it, these issues will continue to be one-sided.
If people stopped to think about the natural population controls
that occur and the decrease in worldwide family size, then maybe
they would also be able to pay attention to the rising social
issues that have resulted from our fear of population growth.
If more concern is paid to the redistribution of resources, the
development of struggling areas and the implementation of
productive humanitarian aid programs, help could be brought to
areas of rapid growth. As long as our actions are motivated by fear
and not by thorough education and compassion, social programs with
adverse consequences will be implemented in our rush to control
population escalation.
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