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MIAMI -- Cuban leader Fidel Castro's decision to step down as
head of state after nearly half a century could signal the passing
of power to a new generation and fresh hope for the island nation
through economic reforms.
Tuesday's resignation letter, which includes disclosures about
his flagging health, was an unequivocal indication that the
81-year-old revolutionary is choreographing his own succession and
leaving on his own terms. Castro, who has run Cuba for 49 years,
ranks as the world's longest-ruling head of state outside of
monarchs.
He will remain first secretary of Cuba's Communist Party and a
member of parliament, serving in an advisory role.
Officials in Washington said there were no immediate plans to
change U.S. policy toward Cuba, including its trade embargo. In
Miami's large exile community, reaction was subdued.
Castro's 76-year-old brother, Raul Castro, who began leading the
country when his brother fell ill and temporarily ceded power to
him more than 18 months ago, has been considered the likely next
head of state. Raul Castro is the constitutionally designated
successor by virtue of his No. 2 position in the party
hierarchy.
But the elder Castro recently has indicated that he might favor
a younger, more energetic person to succeed him. Fidel Castro has
hinted that someone else might emerge Sunday when the newly elected
National Assembly convenes to propose a new executive body, the
31-member Council of State.
"He's catching up to me in years, so it's also a generational
problem," Castro says of Raul in his autobiography, "Fidel Castro:
My Life," released in English this month.
Speculation about who might become president, if not Raul
Castro, has centered on Vice President Carlos Lage, a 56-year-old
physician by training who has been representing Cuba at
international events in Castro's absence.
Lage designed and implemented a slate of modest economic reforms
in the early 1990s, after the Soviet Union collapsed and billions
of dollars in annual subsidies to Cuba ceased. Those changes
allowed thousands of Cubans to open small businesses, many catering
to foreign visitors and giving rise to the first tourism boom on
the island under Communist rule.
Fidel Castro has made no secret of his distaste for the changes
that put dollars in the hands of some Cubans while leaving the
majority with the inconvertible peso that isn't accepted at
hard-currency stores selling imported food and consumer goods.
Nevertheless, Raul Castro and other Cuban officials have
continued to discuss the need for structural changes to improve
living standards. They have encouraged Cubans to speak out about
the current system's shortcomings and to propose ideas for
strengthening the country of more than 11 million people.
The revolution's supporters point to the country's free and
universal education and health care, while critics say the country
suffered a loss of personal liberties and material well-being.
In South Florida, where 800,000 Cuban Americans live and
dominate the political and economic scenes, about 100 people
gathered along Little Havana's Calle Ocho to wave placards
denouncing Castro. Several members of the exile community dismissed
Castro's announcement as relatively meaningless as long as he's
alive and influencing Cuban life.
In his resignation letter, posted at about 3 a.m. in Cuba on the
Web site of the Communist Party daily Granma, Castro reminded
Cubans of comments he made to a television moderator in a December
letter that he said were intended to prepare the nation for his
retirement.
"My elemental duty is not to cling to positions, much less to
stand in the way of younger persons, but rather to contribute
experience and ideas whose modest value comes from the exceptional
era in which I lived," he cited from his earlier note to viewers of
the nightly Round Table political discussion show.
Cuba scholars describe Castro's carefully managed withdrawal as
evidence that gradual change is on the horizon for the island,
whether U.S. policy is revised to promote that change or not.
"What we will see in agriculture and in small businesses that
are now state-run is a redefinition of property rights," said Julia
Sweig, a Cuban revolution historian and senior fellow for Latin
America on the Council on Foreign Relations. "If you look over the
last few years, even before Fidel got sick, you see they've been
talking about the need to get the state out of the way" to allow
farmers and small entrepreneurs to fill the production void.
As Cuban defense minister, Raul Castro was instrumental in
redirecting state and military resources to food cultivation in the
difficult years after the Soviet aid cutoff. He deployed troops to
the fields to oversee food production and help industries
streamline in the absence of fuel and spare parts.
The younger Castro's defense industry operations, under an
economic transformation blueprint drafted by Lage, partnered with
foreign investors to develop a thriving network of tourist hotels,
buses and airlines, bringing in 2 million foreign visitors a year
and bolstering hard-currency coffers by $2 billion annually.
Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to former Secretary of
State Colin Powell and co-chairman of the U.S.-Cuba Policy
Initiative of the New America Foundation think tank in Washington,
noted that Raul Castro had been "re-energizing the bureaucracy" of
the Cuban leadership during his interim tenure.
"Instead of having fiats from the comandante ... he's been
energizing [government ministers] and making them responsible for
specific functions of the bureaucracy. That's very encouraging for
Carlos Lage or whoever is ultimately the head of state," said
Wilkerson, a retired Army colonel who visited Cuba last spring.
Fidel Castro's position as head of the Communist Party remains
arguably the more influential post of the three he has long held as
head of state, party and government. Any resignation of that
position probably would come during a party congress, which has
been overdue and much debated behind the scenes. The last congress
was held in 1997, by which time Castro was already working to roll
back the reforms embraced during the so-called Special Period in
Peacetime that spurred a national mobilization akin to emergency
wartime measures.
Castro said in his letter that he deliberately had downplayed
his likelihood of resuming full powers after his illness to soften
the blow should he not survive the long convalescence.
"When referring to my health, I was extremely careful to avoid
raising expectations since I felt that an adverse ending would
bring traumatic news to our people," he wrote.
But noting that his "dearest compatriots" had re-elected him to
the 614-seat National Assembly in a Jan. 20 one-party election, he
made clear he would serve no more than a symbolic role.
"I will neither aspire to nor accept the positions of president
of the Council of State and commander-in-chief," he told Cubans.
"It would be a betrayal of my conscience to accept a responsibility
requiring more mobility and dedication than I am physically able to
offer."
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